Why Are Egg Prices So High Right Now?
The average dozen eggs now costs over $4.80 — nearly triple what they cost in 2021. Here's the full breakdown of what's driving record egg prices, which states are hit hardest, and whether relief is coming.
🦠 The Avian Flu Epidemic
The biggest driver is the ongoing H5N1 avian flu (bird flu) outbreak — the worst in US history. Since 2022, over 100 million egg-laying hens have been culled to prevent spread. That's roughly one in every four commercial egg-laying chickens in America.
When a flock tests positive, the entire farm is depopulated — sometimes tens of millions of birds at once. Restocking takes 6–12 months minimum. Supply has never fully recovered between outbreaks.
📈 Feed and Energy Costs
Even farms unaffected by avian flu are paying significantly more to operate. Corn and soybean meal — the primary components of chicken feed — surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global grain supplies. Feed costs represent roughly 60–70% of the total cost of producing an egg.
Energy costs for climate-controlled laying facilities have also risen. These input costs don't disappear even when egg prices briefly dip.
🗺 Which States Are Hit Hardest?
Egg prices vary significantly by state. Urban coastal states — California, New York, and Massachusetts — consistently see the highest prices due to additional regulations (California's Prop 12 cage-free mandate adds 30–40% to production costs alone).
Midwest states close to major egg-producing farms — Iowa, Ohio, Indiana — tend to see the lowest retail prices. Iowa alone produces about 1 in 7 eggs consumed in the US.
🛒 How to Save on Eggs Right Now
- Buy store brand — name-brand eggs and store-brand eggs come from the same farms in many cases. Store brand saves $0.50–$1.50/dozen on average.
- Check Aldi and Lidl — discount grocery chains consistently price eggs 20–40% below traditional supermarkets.
- Costco and Sam's Club — bulk buying doesn't always save money on eggs (they spoil), but larger pack sizes often have lower per-egg costs.
- Substitute when cooking — for baking, applesauce, mashed banana, or commercial egg replacers work in many recipes.
- Local farms and co-ops — in many areas, buying directly from small local farms is now cheaper than supermarket prices.
📅 When Will Egg Prices Come Down?
Analysts are cautiously optimistic that prices will moderate through 2025 — but not return to pre-2022 levels. Key factors:
- Avian flu outbreaks remain unpredictable — a major new outbreak could spike prices overnight
- Cage-free transition requirements in multiple states will keep a structural floor under prices
- New farm capacity takes 12–18 months to come online after culling events
- Feed cost relief depends on global grain markets
Most forecasts put the national average at $3.50–$4.00/dozen by end of 2025 if no major new outbreak occurs. That's still double the pre-pandemic norm.